2016 MORPS Team Projections
MORPS 2016 team projections posted below. 2015 team projections only picked 50% of the playoff teams which is better than the 2014. We definitely missed on the Kansas City Royals and their World Series win. On the positive side, we did predict playoff runs for the Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Pirates and Blue Jays. Our only miss in the NL was the Cubs over the Nationals. The AL is another story. In addition to the Royals, we also missed on the Astros, Rangers, and Yankees. Predicting 50% of the playoff participants isn’t bad considering the number of roster changes that happen during the course of the season. Between 2013 and 2010, MORPS team projections averaged 73%. We are hoping move in that direction this year.
This year’s team projections are as follows:
American League |
||
2014 AL East |
Wins |
Losses |
Toronto |
90 |
72 |
Boston |
83 |
79 |
Tampa Bay |
81 |
81 |
Baltimore |
78 |
84 |
New York |
75 |
87 |
2014 AL Central |
Wins |
Losses |
Cleveland |
88 |
74 |
Detroit |
83 |
79 |
Chicago |
80 |
82 |
Minnesota |
77 |
85 |
Kansas City |
73 |
89 |
2014 AL West |
Wins |
Losses |
Seattle |
87 |
75 |
Houston |
86 |
76 |
Texas |
82 |
80 |
Los Angeles |
78 |
84 |
Oakland |
77 |
85 |
|
||
National League |
||
2014 NL East |
Wins |
Losses |
New York |
97 |
65 |
Washington |
87 |
75 |
Miami |
81 |
81 |
Atlanta |
67 |
95 |
Philadelphia |
64 |
98 |
2014 NL Central |
Wins |
Losses |
Chicago |
92 |
70 |
Saint Louis |
84 |
78 |
Pittsburgh |
82 |
80 |
Cincinnati |
75 |
87 |
Milwaukee |
74 |
88 |
2014 NL West |
Wins |
Losses |
Los Angeles |
95 |
67 |
San Francisco |
88 |
74 |
Arizona |
81 |
81 |
San Diego |
73 |
89 |
Colorado |
71 |
91 |
The Division winners in the NL are New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles with Washington and San Francisco slipping in as the wild card teams. The division winners are certainly not a surprise nor are the wildcard teams. The American League Division winners will be Toronto, Cleveland, and Seattle with Houston as a wildcard team. Boston and Detroit will play a one game playoff to determine the last wildcard spot. Unlike the NL, MORPS predictions in the AL will be s surprise to most. USA Today has Cleveland finishing third and Seattle fourth.
While the team with the most wins don’t always do that well in the playoffs, such distinctions can’t be made with a projection system built around “Runs Created” and “Runs Allowed”. MORPS is projecting an AL championship between Cleveland and Toronto with Toronto going to the world series. In the National League it will be Los Angeles versus New York with the Mets going to the world series. MORPS projects that the New York Mets will win the series in 6 games.
Those that want more information on the projection methodology can click here.
As always, feel free to post your comments.