MORPS 2015 team projections are finished and posted below.  2014 team projections only picked 40% of the playoff teams which is worse than past years.  Teams like Baltimore and San Francisco were surprises while Texas and Colorado were major disappointments.  Between 2013 and 2010, MORPS team projections averaged 73%.  We are hoping to get back on the winning track this year.

This year’s team projections are as follows:

2015 MORPS projections are ready.  Unlike the baseline projections published several weeks ago, these projections include all players projected to win a MLB roster spot on opening day.  Rookie projections use stats generated during either minor league or international play.  Factors are applied to adjust the stats to MLB equivalent stats.  MORPS projections also account for expected adjustments in personal playing time.

The excel version of the projections include a key tab that defines all headings used in the projections.  In short, fantasy baseball players that play in rotisserie leagues should key on the R-ROTO and ROTO columns.  ROTO is a point value derived from weights on the categories in a standard 5×5 rotisserie league.  R-ROTO is the player ranking based upon the ROTO point values.  If you league uses a customer scoring system, you can use the projections in the categories of interest to customize your rankings.  Fantasy baseball players that play in a more realistic format like Baseball Manager or a similar simulation league should reorder the pitching based upon OERV and the batting based upon RC.  OERV stands for Out Earned Run Value.  This stat attempts to value a pitcher by combining ERA with the value of number of innings pitched.  This is a way for fantasy managers in simulation leagues to compare the value of a relief pitcher with a starter or a starter who pitches 200 innings with one that pitches 100 with a slightly lower ERA.  RC is Runs Created.  A league like Baseball Manager uses RC as a basis for the points they generate in their daily games.  The more realistic the simulation, the closer the hitting will align with RC.

2015 MORPS Pitching Projections 20150331 (XLS)

2015 MORPS Pitching Projections 20150331 (PDF)

2015 MORPS Batting Projections 20150331 (XLS)

2015 MORPS Batting Projections 20150331 (PDF)

Team projections for 2015 will be posted within the next week.  Unfortunately, I will not have time this year to post an update to the roto draft tool.  Last year’s tool is still available on this site.  If someone wants to take the initiative to update the tool with this year’s projections, I would be happy to post your updated on the site.

For those who like to resort the projections for their own fantasy system, make sure you filter out the players with a roster status of “N”.  These players will most likely not make an opening day 25 man roster.  Those players who were still in competition for a position were included with a roster status of “Y” in most cases.  I posted the “N” players for those managers who have keeper leagues or deeper rosters that may want to pull one of these folks onto their list.

Play Ball!

Back by popular demand in 2015 – MORPS baseline projections.

In 2014 I published a set of Baseline projections.  These projections used all the models we have put together over the years for projecting player performance.   This means that the projections are still based on four years of data, positional mean regression, etc.  However, they do not account for a player changing positions, reductions in playing time, new players to the big leagues, etc.  Unlike last year, we did enter all MLB player transactions into system since the end of the season last year.  While this doesn’t guarantee that we have caught every trade, free agent move or player being waived; we are hoping that the majority of these type of transactions were captured in the system.

Some may like the baseline projections more than the final version.  I read one review of MORPS last year that criticized the fact that we took the time to model anticipate plate appearances and batters faced for each team before releasing our final projections.  They didn’t consider that process “scientific”.   Our perspective is that the modeling allows us to adjust the ratios between each stat and plate appearance or batter faced to account for situations that weren’t present the year before.  This could be a player being part of a platoon when they played the position full-time the year before.  It could be a reduction in playing time due to the appearance of a blockbuster free agent or anticipated rookie hitting the big leagues.  It could also be a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery after being out of the game for over a year.  Regardless of the situation, we believe that the modeling of plate appearances and batters faced for each team adds significant value to MORPS projections.  If you doubt our ability to accurately model these situations or you have an early fantasy draft and need something now, you’re in luck.  You can use our baseline projections.

So…. Drum roll please.  Without further ado, we present the 2015 MORPS Baseline Projections.   The Batting and Pitching projections are available in excel and PDF formats.  Follow the links below to download your copy.

2015 MORPS Batting Projections Baseline (XLS)

2015 MORPS Batting Projections Baseline (PDF)

2015 MORPS Pitching Projections Baseline (XLS)

2015 MORPS Pitching Projections Baseline (PDF)

If you player Roto baseball, you will find the projections already sorted in Roto Rank order.  If you play a more realistic version of fantasy baseball, like BBM, you will need to re-sort the XLS spreadsheet in RC order for batters and OERV order for pitchers. Play Ball!

We are analyzing Stats and entering MLB off-season transactions into the model.   2015 MORPS Projections will be ready soon.  Stay tuned for more updates.